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Offline Rasyr

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Exploding Dice question
« on: March 28, 2022, 12:19:20 PM »
I also had a few questions:
 1. I'm trying to understand the percentage change of success when doing skill rolls. Also because the die explodes it's hard for me to visualize this. For example, how much is a +1 increase of a skill or stat?

Percentage-wise, the dice explode on 3 possible rolls... A natural 20 (Super Nova)

or when either die rolls a 10.

Now, with 2d10, there are basically 100 different possible dice combinations that can be rolled.

So, you have 1 1% chance of Super Nova
and that would be an 18% chance of an exploding die

Basic success is 15 or higher, so your basic chance of success (with a zero skill bonus and zero modifiers) is giong to be 21% as there are 21 possible dice combinations (excluding exploding dice).

If we includ exploding dice, that changes things slightly, in that you have an extra 10 combinations that can lead to rolling a 3rd d10, and the chance of that throwing you over the top is variable depending on what the initial roll was.

But speaking VERY VERY VERY roughly, I would put the chance of a successful dice roll for the basic TN at being approximately 35-ish %

And remember, that does not include Advantages or Complications or skill bonuses or any other modifiers....

And to me, that feels about right....



every_tragedian

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Re: Exploding Dice question
« Reply #1 on: April 01, 2022, 10:13:28 AM »
Thanks for the clarification!  :)  This really helps me understand it better.
 I got one last question related to this. If you increase a skill or stat by +1, about how much does that increase the chance of success ?

Offline Rasyr

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Re: Exploding Dice question
« Reply #2 on: April 01, 2022, 12:49:17 PM »
Thanks for the clarification!  :)  This really helps me understand it better.
 I got one last question related to this. If you increase a skill or stat by +1, about how much does that increase the chance of success ?

Please keep in mind that I am not a mathematician or statician, so my numbers are VERY rough at best.... (I mostly went by "this feels right" and "empirical testing shows it is roughly what I am wanting")

Each +1 to the roll likely adds about 5% to the chance of success (from that rough 35% base chance).

Now, if the Target Number (TN) gets larger, that will decrease the overall chances as well. like by roughly 5% per point of increase up to 20, and then it will vary from there.....

If trying to figure chance of success, I would take (total bonus of roll minus TN-15)  and adjust based on how it would modify the roll (negative increases chances of success, positive decreases chances of success)


every_tragedian

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Re: Exploding Dice question
« Reply #3 on: April 02, 2022, 05:56:04 PM »
You're the best man! Thanks again for the help in clearing this up for me.  ;D